Le Covid-19 va-t-il effacer des années de progrès en Afrique subsaharienne ?

 Le Covid-19 va-t-il effacer des années de progrès en Afrique subsaharienne ?

IMPACT. Si les effets de la pandémie de coronavirus n’ont pas été aussi dramatiques sur le plan sanitaire, ils ont tout de même porté un coup dur à l’économie de la région, avertit la Banque mondiale. Par Le Point Afrique.

La conclusion du dernier rapport « Africa’s Pulse : tracer la voie de la relance économique » de la Banque mondiale publié le 8 octobre est sans appel pour l’Afrique subsaharienne : « La pandémie a mis en danger « une décennie de progrès économique durement acquis ». Plombée par les retombées économiques de la pandémie de Covid-19, la croissance en Afrique subsaharienne devrait chuter à – 3,3 % en 2020, entraînant la région dans sa première récession économique en 25 ans. La pandémie risque aussi de faire basculer 40 millions d’Africains dans l’extrême pauvreté, effaçant au moins cinq années de progrès dans la lutte contre la pauvreté. Cette analyse ne fait que confirmer les prévisions du groupe de la Banque mondiale sur une probable récession économique de l’Afrique due à la Covid-19.

Avec plus d’un million de cas de coronavirus déclarés à travers le continent, la pandémie n’apparaît pas encore maîtrisée en Afrique subsaharienne. Certains pays, comme le Sénégal ou Maurice, ont su réagir à temps pour limiter la propagation des infections. Néanmoins, les mesures de confinement s’accompagnent de coûts très élevés pour l’économie, comme on a pu le constater à travers le monde.

Mais, alors, comment relancer des économies éprouvées de toutes parts ? Où en sont les grandes puissances économiques continentales et quid des actions menées pour donner du répit aux pays les plus pauvres ? Le rapport Africa’s Pulse permet une analyse semestrielle des perspectives économiques des économies de la région, au plus près de la réalité.

Les géants africains touchés de plein fouet

Globalement, Albert Zeufack, économiste en chef à la Banque mondiale pour l’Afrique, explique que « la voie de la relance économique s’annonce longue et difficile, mais elle peut être accélérée, solide et plus inclusive si les pays africains accordent la priorité aux réformes et aux investissements qui permettront de relever le défi de créer davantage d’emplois inclusifs et de meilleure qualité ».

Parmi les pays les plus touchés figurent les géants comme le Nigeria. Rien qu’au cours du deuxième trimestre, le pays a vu son PIB réel reculer de 6,1 % par rapport à l’année dernière, soit son plus bas niveau depuis plus d’une décennie. Sur la même période, l’Afrique du Sud, sous le coup de mesures strictes de confinement, a vu son PIB réel plonger de 17,1 %. L’Angola, le deuxième pays producteur de pétrole en Afrique subsaharienne après le Nigeria, a vu son économie reculer de 1,8 % au premier trimestre 2020, par rapport à l’année dernière.

Le déclin de la croissance a été particulièrement marqué pour les pays exportateurs de métaux, pour lesquels on s’attend à une contraction du PIB réel de 6 %, reflétant en partie la baisse importante de la production en Afrique du Sud. Tandis que du côté des pays exportateurs de pétrole, après une croissance de 1,5 % en 2019, le PIB réel devrait diminuer de plus de 4 points de pourcentage en 2020, du fait du recul de la croissance en Angola et au Nigeria.

Quelques pays s’en sortent

En revanche, les pays dont l’économie ne dépend pas essentiellement des ressources naturelles ne devraient afficher qu’un recul modéré de leur croissance en 2020. Si l’on s’attend à un ralentissement sensible dans ces pays – comme la Côte d’Ivoire, l’Éthiopie ou le Kenya –, la croissance devrait rester positive, du fait de la plus grande diversification de leurs économies. Cependant, les économies dépendantes du tourisme, en particulier le Cap-Vert, Maurice et les Seychelles, ont connu une forte contraction de leur économie, le secteur des services étant fortement affecté par la chute drastique du tourisme international.

Mais la récession est inévitable

Les efforts déployés pour enrayer la propagation du virus ont interrompu ou inversé les avancées économiques, déclenchant la première récession dans la région depuis 25 ans, et le bout du tunnel est encore loin. D’autant que la crainte d’une éventuelle deuxième vague de l’épidémie crée de nombreuses incertitudes quant à l’avenir économique de la région.

Cette année, le ralentissement sensible de l’activité économique devrait coûter au moins 115 millions de dollars de pertes de production à la région. On s’attend à un recul de 6 % du produit intérieur brut par habitant, soit le niveau de 2007 – entraîné notamment par la baisse de la consommation intérieure et de l’investissement, découlant des mesures de confinement mises en place pour ralentir la propagation du coronavirus. Et cette chute risque d’entraîner près de 40 millions d’Africains dans l’extrême pauvreté. C’est-à-dire des populations qui doivent vivre avec moins de 1,9 dollar par jour, soit 1 000 francs CFA.

« Un rebond timide et inégal »

« Bien que la pandémie n’ait pas dit son dernier mot et malgré les incertitudes liées à la résistance et à la propagation du virus, les gouvernements africains ont commencé à mettre en place des réformes et des programmes afin d’appuyer un redressement économique post-Covid-19 inclusif et durable », souligne Hafez Ghanem, vice-président de la Banque mondiale pour l’Afrique de l’Est et australe. « Les pays de la région mettent en œuvre des politiques et des programmes créateurs d’emplois et permettant d’accélérer la transformation économique afin de réduire dès à présent l’impact économique de la pandémie, mais aussi de développer les capacités nécessaires à une future croissance économique inclusive. » Mais le rapport Africa’s Pulse insiste sur une reprise soutenue par la création d’emplois, plus d’investissements dans le capital humain et une transformation numérique.

Plusieurs pays, dont l’Afrique du Sud, le Nigeria et l’Éthiopie, ont déjà commencé à mettre en œuvre des réformes attendues dans les secteurs de l’énergie et des télécommunications, sous l’impulsion de la crise actuelle. « Par ailleurs, 25 % des compagnies africaines ont accéléré leur adoption des technologies numériques et accru leurs investissements dans les solutions numériques, indique le rapport de la Banque mondiale ». Sur le plan social, à la mi-septembre, on dénombrait pas moins de 166 mesures de protection sociale déployées à travers 46 pays d’Afrique subsaharienne dont 84 % concernaient l’assistance sociale.

L’Afrique du Sud entre relance et scandale

Et pourtant, des manifestations ont lieu dans divers pays du continent. En Afrique du Sud, cette semaine, des mobilisations ont eu lieu dans plusieurs villes pour justement dénoncer la gestion jugée désastreuse du gouvernement, qui a fait perdre deux millions d’emplois dans la foulée de la pandémie de Covid-19.

Ces rassemblements, minimalistes à cause de l’épidémie, étaient organisés à l’appel de la principale centrale syndicale, la Cosatu, pour dénoncer aussi la faiblesse des salaires et les nombreux scandales de corruption liés au Covid, un « vol flagrant de fonds destinés aux contribuables ». Plus de 2,2 millions de personnes ont perdu leur emploi entre avril et juin, promettant encore plus de pauvreté et d’inégalité au pays le plus industrialisé d’Afrique.

À Pretoria, des centaines d’employés, infirmiers, postiers et policiers ont exprimé leur ras-le-bol : « En Afrique du Sud, il y a beaucoup de corruption » et depuis la pandémie « c’est pire que pire encore », a confié à l’Agence France Presse le professeur Titi Ragedi, 32 ans, qui attend une hausse de salaire promise il y a déjà six mois. Fonds détournés, contrats passés auprès de sociétés politiquement amies, surfacturations et fraudes : le géant est confronté ces dernières semaines à une série gênante de scandales de corruption liés aux fonds alloués pour lutter contre le coronavirus.

L’auditeur général, l’équivalent d’un président de la Cour des comptes, a dénoncé des niveaux « effrayants » de corruption, alors que des enquêteurs épluchent les comptes de plus de 600 sociétés et organismes ayant reçu plus de 250 millions d’euros pour fournir des équipements de protection aux soignants et distribuer de l’aide.

« Alors que la pression exercée par la pandémie sur les économies africaines continue de se faire sentir, il est important pour les décideurs politiques de créer l’infrastructure nécessaire à une reprise rapide de l’économie. », rappelle Ousmane Diagana, vice-président de la Banque mondiale pour l’Afrique de l’Ouest et centrale. « Des politiques solides créent les conditions nécessaires à un redressement durable et inclusif, ainsi qu’à une plus grande résilience aux chocs à venir. »

Pour donner un peu de répit aux pays les plus pauvres d’Afrique, la Banque mondiale et le Fonds monétaire international ont proposé de suspendre le service de la dette cette année pour ces derniers. Cependant, cela ne réglera qu’une fraction de la dette totale, raison pour laquelle l’institution de Bretton Woods a lancé un nouvel appel aux créanciers privés. Enfin une note d’espoir, le rapport prédit un rebond de l’économie régionale dès 2021.

Source : Le Point.fr

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